A United Ireland Plebiscite Must Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Caution

Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."